On the Edge

Starred review from June 15, 2024
A thought-provoking examination of how society has become increasingly divided between the risk-tolerant and the risk-averse. Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a polling firm known for its careful, erudite perspectives and predictive statistics. (He left in 2023.) He is also a successful gambler, especially in the rarified world of high-stakes poker. In his latest, the author brings his interests together to delve into the nature of risk, a subject he touched on in his bestselling 2012 book, The Signal and the Noise. The risk game, notes Silver, is not just about assessing the likelihood of an event but also the possible gains from an unlikely event happening. Good gamblers--who include, in Silver's analysis, hedge fund managers, arbitrageurs, and venture capitalists--do not win the big pot by playing it safe but by backing their own judgment against conventional wisdom. However, they do not charge blindly forward; in fact, they usually have a great affinity for numbers, trends, data, and complexity. In short, they calculate the risks and the rewards of any given venture and, when as certain as possible, go all in. The members of this group comprise an "ecosystem" he calls the River. "Most Riverians aren't rich and powerful. But rich and powerful people are disproportionately likely to be Riverians compared to the rest of the population," he writes. Delving further into the political landscape, the author notes that they are opposed by another group, the Villagers, whom Riverians believe "are too paternalistic, too neurotic, and too risk-averse." It is an interesting model of polarization, although it begins to fall apart if pushed too far, especially given that many Riverians begin the game on third base. Still, Silver provides a clever look into a unique realm. An enlightening study of the people who play the game of risk and win.

COPYRIGHT(2024) Kirkus Reviews, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

September 2, 2024
In this free-wheeling outing, statistician and professional poker player Silver (The Signal and the Noise) explores what he calls “the River”: people who make a living taking risks, from professional gamblers to venture capitalists. He pegs this group as a potent socioeconomic type—risk-tolerant, market-oriented, individualistic, contrarian—in opposition to “the Village,” the risk-averse realm of government bureaucrats and academics. Silver opens with a cognitive analysis of poker, which requires both computer-like calculation and empathic perceptiveness; then he moves on to a dissection of the mentalities of risk-taking Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. Silver aims not just to serve as a “tour guide to the River” for outsiders but as a sage counselor to fellow “Riverians,” whose triumphs Silver cautions are at risk from too much risk; FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried is presented here as a cautionary tale against a recklessness that shades too far into nihilism (he once said he would wager the destruction of the world on a coin toss). While colorful and enlightening, Silver’s narrative disconcerts with its blitheness about the system it’s describing—a society built on gambling, for gamblers (“Those of us who understand the algorithms hold the trump cards”). It’s eye-opening, but not quite as intended.